Bloody confrontation in Ukraine, the loss of life — a tragedy of enormous proportions, which captures and Russia. Anxiety and pain from happening we have in common. Very many of the problems that led to the current situation — too common. Some of them typologically identical, part — a single process without frontiers. Instead, at least some understanding of these issues in the Russian media space hysterical. Excited eloquent advocates gloat convince Russian viewers and readers that everything that happens in Kiev, Lviv and other cities — a conspiracy of the West and geopolitical tug of «war» with Russia. And still struggling to shy to teach it. Major conversations in the circles of the Russian opposition on succeeding Ukrainian revolution and the need to follow the example of the Ukrainian events — amateurish primitive and totally irresponsible … In fact, what happened and what is happening in Ukraine — is not an example of a third party, separated abroad, and part of our overall situation is extremely difficult, complicated many political, economic and social factors, the output of which must be sought together.
1. What happened in the Ukraine?
People living in Ukraine financially bad. Too many much worse than the average in Russia. Since oil and gas revenues in Ukraine is not, then there are a large number of chronic economic and social problems, a large sector of poverty, poor medicine, poor education. In addition to that — povsemestnayakorruptsiya and grossly unfair rules of life, based on the rule of force and chance. Entrepreneurship is difficult poor economic policies, instability, oligarchs, monopolists and crime.
Yanukovych administration in humans has never been in respect of: opaque power, which was taken as a rule, people «that something is» so they can be kept on the «hook», it looked like ineptokratiya, ie a form of government in which the leader of the poor talent selects the most paternalistic attitudes electorate. It is understood or felt the almost the entire population of Ukraine.
Well people understand or feel where the output. Examples of near — countries such as Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania. They were not fundamentally better than Ukraine 20 years ago, but they are in the presence of many similar problems starting, come a long way to the European Union and the European Union. Now they also have a lot of problems, but is considerably higher standard of living and in particular its quality, and most importantly — they have a prospect.
It is not surprising that since the beginning of the Ukrainian state all the presidents said the same thing — Ukraine should be in Europe. With these same promises came to power and Yanukovych. (In Moscow, for some reason, has long been considered that it was just a bluff).
Until the end of last fall, in fact, acted social contract: people are willing to tolerate Yanukovych, while there is a movement in Europe. Ukrainians believe that the European rules and standards, firstly, to live gradually get better as in other similar European countries, and secondly, they are confident that in Europe such as neither Yanukovych nor his regime can not be. It is in fact, when it becomes a reality — all these values in this case does not matter. For a large number of people across the Ukraine it became the main hopes and dreams. Moreover, on the eve of the signing of the association agreement with the European Union, it was clear that the choice in favor of Europe does not split and unites the country.
Choice in the minds of Ukrainians formed a very clear — between a European future (perhaps idealized, highly embellished), and thus the present, in which no one wants to live not.
Suddenly came the strongest disappointment — Yanukovych to stop the advance in Europe and outlined a course in the opposite direction. People feel deeply betrayed and humiliated. Cancel signing an agreement with the European Union was seen as the end of all hope! It became obvious that everything will remain as it is, will only be worse: no prospects, no future, and Yanukovych and his lawless regime — forever!
Power broke the social contract, the people rebelled, appeared maidan. After attempts by the authorities to the violent dispersal of peaceful Maidan on November 30 began an acute crisis. After January’s massive power clashes in the city center and the seizure of power by protesters in dozens of regions of Ukraine, the situation escalated to the limit. On the one hand, a very dubious Yanukovych and his «family oligarchy», and on the other — multi-layered cake: people demanding change, a few weak parliamentary politicians and radicals of all stripes … At last the entire opposition, and, by and large, and the whole country were hostage. Blood was shed, both sides have shown that will not stop to violence. On February 18, the boundary between the extremely bad situation and tragedy been crossed
2. What happens now?
The regime of Yanukovych support was not found nowhere else. This kind of power, which support up to no time in social activity, and in silence, the real and imaginary fears, poverty, habits of «paternal care» was passed at some time status quo, regardless of its degree of fairness. When this power begins to fall — it no support, only push.
The parliamentary opposition, being unable to keep the political process and appeared under very strong pressure from radicals consistently losing its influence and control over the situation. If the European way to Ukraine will increasingly embody the aggressive nationalists and hooliganism thugs, and they will continue to shape the agenda, forcing the opposition politicians to dance to their tune — a dead end. Radicalism, mixed with nationalism and violent, threatens to transform «European» slogans of the integration factor in the cause of the split. While a small but illustrative example: denial of minority languages regional status as one of the first acts to «reformat» Rada adopted under pressure from radicals in fact turned out to be non-European and repulsive parts of the country.
In Ukrainian politics and street activity is, of course, such an engine as a regional factor — west of the country: the former especially Galicia and Bukovina. These regions are more than five centuries were not part of Russia and, of course, their population in their culture and mentality differs from the eastern and central Ukraine. People coming from these regions on the Maidan, a stubborn and radical than, say, Kiev. But the main reasons for the radicalization of the situation is still not the case.
Access to the political limelight most radical forces — the result of long-term suppression by the authorities of natural processes of social development, for the sake of retaining power when it is constantly snare and thus directed in an unnatural direction. So, apart from society enemy, or at least a source of problems, the government has acted before the crisis. So continue to operate during the crisis, exacerbating his stubborn refusal to understand its causes, to admit mistakes and the desire to see the only way out is to Maidan «gone.»
If energetic, capable of moving forward and requires serious institutional change society, squeezed tight corset to prevent its development — the process of birth of a new happening anyway, but the fruit will be ugly. This was the reign of Nicholas II: power separated from society and refused to change, has led to a situation where the desire of the Russian elite to implement modern for the time transformation of autocracy into a constitutional monarchy and thereby create conditions for further development of the country, was born Bolshevik monster.
By the way, now in Russia almost a hundred years, much more self-interested, petty, vindictive, much less educated and formed the ruling group, is perceived as a danger to society for themselves, irrational and absurd attempts to pretend that there is no development of the society is not. It again puts on society of the tight corset restrictions, prohibitions, perversion and lawlessness — thus the birth of the next programming socio-political ugliness — dominance in politics outright ignorant, populist, radical …
3. The main reason for the crisis in Ukraine
A careful and impartial analysis of what is happening in Ukraine shows that at all serious internal Ukrainian factors of the crisis, the main reason is geographically beyond. It is what is happening in Russia.
In cultural and historical terms, Russia, like Ukraine and Belarus — belong to the European civilization and the only really existing direction of their further development — European. If these countries want to keep in the XXI century statehood, then nothing else for them does not exist. Trying to move in the other direction is a deviation from the natural historical development. About how the Bolshevik experiment of building socialism-communism. Only now the results will be even more devastating for the States experimenters.
Ukrainian crisis is of particular importance because it is the first large-scale manifestation of this deviation and a direct consequence of a violation of the natural process of historical development of the post-Soviet space
A key role in this crisis belongs to Russia. It is in the last fifteen years of his growing Eurasian domestic and foreign policy tries hard to create a clear anti-European vector.
Unnatural Russia’s refusal to move the European way means breaking the post-Soviet space. Ukrainian crisis — a consequence of this gap.
Instead of moving together with Ukraine to Europe, Russia is trying to drag Ukraine in the opposite direction.
Russian political establishment in a situation with Ukraine on the model of zero-sum game: Ukraine, signed an association agreement with Europe — the defeat of Russia, not a signatory — the defeat of the West. Not surprisingly, the people’s interests in Ukraine (including Russian, Russian-speaking which is usually so much baked in Russian patriotic circles) at the same time does not matter.
Russia has created a new context for painful all its neighbors: a strong desire to move away as far as possible from the neighboring powers, sliding down an inclined anti-European domestic policy. Everyone sees in Russia and opposed threats to European direction, insistent push «alternative Eurasian values»: demonstrative disregard for human rights, denial of equality of all citizens before the law, separation of powers and the creation of the modern state law, cultivation of the oligarchic system of property, intentional lack of competition.
His rejection of the motion vector of European Russia poses a significant zone of instability, as almost all of its western and southern neighbors even, ultimately aspire to Europe, therefore, in all these countries are very serious forces fighting against Russia’s plans of «hold and not let go. »
Sooner or later, the instability caused by erroneous anti-European course, will come to Russia itself.
4. Prospects
Issuance of tips on how to resolve the crisis in Ukraine, has long since become one of the favorite activities for a number of Russian politicians. Such advice is often the real Ukraine have little relevance and are, shall we say, rhetorical. It is hardly necessary to do it. The tactics of the crisis — how to form an interim government, when and how to conduct elections which to build coalitions, etc. — These are issues that must be addressed by the Ukrainians. I have no doubt that it is clear and that it is necessary first of all by all means to prevent the escalation of violence and disintegration of the country.
However, the possibility of successful solving strategic problems of Ukraine’s future largely depends on the objective of Russia. With unconditional and unequivocal countering Russia and the current EU policy movement in Ukraine into the European Union in the foreseeable future will not work, no matter how events unfolded in Kiev.
Russia has serious possibilities to generate instability in Ukraine through the economy (the dependence on Russian markets and energy), warming separatism using cash injections and media propaganda, eventually — through a boost to the collapse … It is hard to imagine that in Kiev can be formed by the government, which has sufficient political will, popular support and professionalism to overcome the difficulties of such a scale and almost insurmountable obstacles.
Therefore, Ukraine is one of the key issues — the fate of the European future of Russia.
In Russia, the question of the necessity of «movement in Europe» in the political class is almost suppressed, and among the citizens of little relevance due to the general course of the circumstances and anti-European propaganda ageressivnoy Many go into private life, refuse to improve the state and interact with it. In the Russian context in the short terms is the most rational behavior. (In this case, as we know, those integrated into the «top» of the Russian layer on a personal level, there are far more opportunities to enjoy the benefits of European than any ordinary person, and more than that of those who strongly supports the fundamental European values. )
Russia denied any reasonable dreams of the future, instead of it being imposed Eurasian phantoms, ignorant fantasies that a person with common sense just scary. Deliberately confuse the question of choosing the path of European Russia c direction of trade flows and pipelines. But the European path and lifestyle — not an alternative to trade with China, the countries of Asia and the world. European way — is primarily a course of domestic policy and the direction of their own social development. Without the sense of European states to reorient vzaimodeysvtie with society, per person, no economic, political, geopolitical strategy will not work at all. The main obstacle for the European course — not the current problems in Europe and economic growth in Asia, and its fundamental incompatibility with the interests of the Russian ruling class in the preservation of himself and the current Russian authorities of the merger, property and business. Demagogic cover of this incompatibility is talk of Eurasianism.
Russian political postmodern society dictates kitchen: in the existing Eurasian power model has shortcomings, but there is no alternative. Distribute calls on all sides to see an alternative in Ukrainian events only reinforce this assertion. The opposition wants to change about the person of the president and replace it by yourself. However, to break the deadlock that is strictly enough. It’s not about good or bad Putin. In Russia there is a critical set of crisis issues: identity, legitimacy, fundamental incompatibility of the current constitution and created the country’s economic system … a little change of government. Necessary refounding and on this basis to build a modern state.
For Russia — is to overcome Bolshevism, Stalinism and political postmodern public awareness of the fact that a return to historical Russian and natural development for our country — a return to the European path, interrupted by the Bolshevik disaster and now again undermine homegrown Eurasianism.
This return to the people, dreams, hopes and prospects.
As Dostoyevsky wrote, «… without ideals … can never get any good reality. I can even say positively that there will be nothing but more dense forest of abominations. »
Or ideal prospect, equal-Russia capable not scare, and inspire our people can only be a common, pan-European. Such a realistic prospect, of course, is the concept of a Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok. And it’s not just a pretty picture, a figure of speech. This is a significant, efficient and the only practical alternative in the first place, deadlock stable decay, in which conservatives driven society, and secondly, the new-old myth of nationalism as the only possible driving force of the liberal revolution.
Europe (Russia and Ukraine as its essential components), such self-identification and consistent economic, political and military-strategic incarnation — the only way to survive and gain a new, much higher quality in global politics and economic competition with North America and Southeast Asia in the XXI century.
Separately, neither Europe nor especially Eurasian Russia, which denies the West and considers it a source of danger, never will.
Europe in general can be a strong and promising only if the European way of life in the world is constantly growing, overcoming today’s border. Once it stops, believing that political Europe is limited, following the accession of the Baltic countries of the former Soviet border, such a movement devoid of energy and important content of Europe will increasingly bureaucratised, blond-haired, decompose.
In addition, Russia and Ukraine with its cultural and historical experience, preserved in spite of all traditions, the creativity of people could positively influence the decision of many European issues.
It is clear that in the current situation it is hard to believe. But if Russia’s policy was adequate challenges of the modern world, this is not only could talk, it would become the main content of its foreign policy.
But in order to be adequate to the modern world, Russia needs the European vector of development, starting with the European dream. Large European dream.
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